The predictions and the results…of Covid-19

trump and his followers told us until early March that the pandemic would likely be less serious than the flu. The flu, they said, costs something like 61,000 lives over the course of a season. Covid-19 was first stated to be “one person from China” and then 15 but going to zero shortly before finally trump was pushed by evidence or by others around him having a sounder mind into admitting that there was indeed a real problem.

Today, the CDC tells us that 1,005,147 persons have been found to be infected with this virus, and there have been 57,505 deaths. The original estimate (or rumor) was that only 2 percent (google saying in early march that it was 3–4 percent of those infected) of those infected would lose their lives, but that is not what the figures show. Based on today’s recorded figures (likely established yesterday at round 4pm), the actually percentage of deaths comes to 5.7 percent on the national level.

Some of the states have death tolls that are even worse. In Louisiana there are known to be 27,660 cases, with 1802 deaths. That comes to 6.5 percent of those that get the virus dying from it. A very sad statistic is that it is more likely to kill Africa-Americans in our state due to the widespread problem of poor health care access within a population that often serve as hospitality workers in low paying jobs.

Some have floated the theory that it is no more dangerous than a bad cold. Well, imagine a bad cold that kills slightly over 5 percent of those that get it. While a bad “summer cold” is no doubt very irritating and frustrating as one’s nose runs and even shortness of breath occurs from time to time, nobody that I have ever known, died of the cold. People ARE dying from Covid-19.

In order to check further, I verified the numbers presented for two other states. Those being California and New York.

The information for New York is 300,000 cases of the virus with 18015 deaths for the entire state (NYC alone has about 165,000 of those). That comes to 6.0 percent of those catching it dying from it. I am not sure why the numbers in New York is so high but slightly less when compared to Louisiana. Although the figures are close, the difference could simply be that HealthCare is more evenly distributed, slightly. Also, as I will be noting in another place, it could be where the virus migrated from.

Another theory is that 9–11 did a lot of damage to New York City in terms of lung capacity. Of course Louisiana has the fossil fuel industry and refineries polluting our air and water. So both Louisiana and New York are already weakened health wise.

In California, however, the numbers are 45031 having the virus with 1809 deaths. That comes to 4.0 percent of those catching it dying.

It is important to note that the virus that kill the east part of the country, including New York, originated out of Europe. California’s pandemic is a strain that came from China. This would suggest, study required of course, that the two strains might just be enough different to affect the death rate.

Unlike the cold, which comes around every year, and is survived every year or the flu which one is encouraged to take a vaccine for every year (which I try to do and definitely have this year), there is no known treatment yet for Covid-19. We don’t even know if there is an immunity that can be earned by way of having the infection. In other words, it might be just like the cold, in that one could be open to getting it each and every year.

(note: the New York State figures are spelled out on google if you search for numbers of deaths and cases in New York State of Covid-19.)

Please note that after I wrote this article, I got some “pushback” on my facebook about one of the points. I and a friend of mine, both of us from New Orleans, and very aware of the damage of pollution from watching the oil industry do their damage to our natural resources, felt that New York City probably had a high infection rate because of the pollution created by 9–11.

A resident of the city took exception and we had this discussion on facebook messenger.


NY Resident: And people who say New Yorkers were made fundamentally less healthy by 9/11 have some screws loose!

My response:

Really?? It made sense to me because of all the results of the building collapsing and the pollution that had to be generated. know the part about Louisiana is right

NY Resident: Yes, but the effects were limited to a very small area downtown. And the COVID19 epidemic covers the entire metro area. A likelier explanation is the dense population. NYC residents live much more closely together in smaller spaces than people in California or the Midwest (I didn’t say this on the response but I hardly think that either I or my friend have a screw loose….it was a logical conclusion, it may not be true due to the alternative information, but the logic was there. Pollution DOES in fact weaken bodies).

Me: did you say that on the article? Where are most of the cases…how many are in the extreme downtown area?

NY Resident: It would be hard to break down that way, because very few people live in the extreme downtown. It’s primarily a business district with very little residential. People who work there we have variously in New York Connecticut New Jersey etc. And many people who work there during 9/11 don’t work there anymore. So really, the connection is pretty tenuous.

Me: Ok, I got that from a friend who lives here in Louisiana and we have a real problem with the oil industry and the pollution and just destruction of the area that they generate. So that is where the idea came from…Ii bought it because to me it seemed logical that a place that had been hit by one horrible event would be affected by that same event with the next hit…if you don’t put this on the page in comments, I will copy it and “quote a New York native”.

NY Resident: Yeah, feel free to copy.

Me: So then it is your contention that the higher death rate is because of the closeness of all those people?!! Ok.

NY Resident: thumbs up.

My take from this is that for whatever reason, New York City, especially, had a lot of infections. Whether it is due to pollution and the conditions of the residents with 9–11 as a background or the density of the population, there is a problem there. However, there is also a problem in less populated areas due to pollution and the pre-existing poor health of the people involved based on poverty and lack of medical coverage.

66 and retired, and living my dream free, knowing that only by working with a union am I fortunate enough to be able to be where I am.